In a groundbreaking study, independent Russian media outlets Mediazona and Meduza, in collaboration with a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University, have exposed the true human cost of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to their analysis of Russian government data using the concept of excess mortality, nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war, a figure significantly higher than the officially acknowledged casualties.
Officially, Russia has publicly acknowledged the deaths of just over 6,000 soldiers, but reports on military losses have been suppressed in Russian media, leading to an information blackout. However, through a combination of social media postings, photographs of cemeteries, and records of inheritance cases, Mediazona and the BBC’s Russian Service have meticulously built a database of 27,423 confirmed war deaths as of July 7.
To provide a more comprehensive estimate, the researchers obtained inheritance records from the National Probate Registry, encompassing information about more than 11 million people who died between 2014 and May 2023. Their analysis revealed a staggering surge in the number of inheritance cases opened for males aged 15 to 49, with 25,000 more cases than expected in 2022, and an alarming increase to 47,000 excess cases by May 27, 2023.
This analysis aligns with the assessments made by the White House and leaked reports from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, which estimated that over 20,000 Russians had been killed in Ukraine since December. The U.K. Ministry of Defense further suggested that 40,000 to 60,000 Russians had likely lost their lives in the conflict.
However, the true extent of the casualties remains uncertain due to the lack of timely and transparent data from both Moscow and Kyiv. The investigation also faced numerous challenges, including harassment and potential criminal charges for those involved in documenting the war dead.
In addition to revealing the high death toll, the study also highlighted the need for improved front-line first aid. The U.K. Ministry of Defense emphasized that better medical care could have prevented many fatalities and amputations, as Russia has been experiencing an average of around 400 casualties per day for the past 17 months.
The Kremlin has not officially responded to the study, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov claiming unawareness of it. Independent outlets like Meduza and Mediazona have faced increasing pressure from the Russian government, with designations as “foreign agents” and the blocking of their websites.
The findings of this independent analysis shed light on a closely guarded secret and serve as a reminder of the devastating human cost of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.